What now? Sell? Hodl? Buy? Panic?
Uncertainty peaking, central banks communication becoming messy and not predictable, Russia & Ukraina.
Where we going?
Stay on your plan. Cash is king now, i rambled to horde cash. If you haven’t, then don’t panic. Yeah it sucks now.
Im not economist (lol trust teh science) nor any geopolitical or macro expert. I’m just trying to navigate trough this shitshow as a winner. Make your own plan and work hard, following “experts” or frogs like me will get you rekt very fast. Do what works for you, we are all different.
I cleaned my portfolio during last autumn and started to pile some cash. I have only my high “supervalue” plays left. BTC,ETH,SOL,LUNA + little bit ATOM+ecosystem. I have zero debt, zero leverage, i don’t literally have to give a flying fuck what is happening. Fundamentals haven’t changed. If you have huge amount of mortgage or you are worried, i’m sorry. This asset class is definitely not for everybody and it is totally fine. Bitcoin is totally different beast though (FYI its not safe haven yet).
War?
Personally i don’t see any reason why this would escalate to full blown war. What are the incentives? This should be not also any surprise if you followed russia over 10y (Crimea 2014). West is weak, especially Europe which is heading to horrible energy crisis. This uncertainty will accelerate this “transitory” inflation. Nato really doesn’ want Ukraine… Russia also really doesn't want Ukraine. How Putin can back off without losing pride?
Just look when all the wars started? Russian economy is very weak now. When the global superpowers have started tensions? Yeah when economy tanking. Many predicted that after covid there would be some kind of war, it’s the only way out for governments. See much covid news now? Yeah, how convenient.
Bulls vs Bears
Sentiment feels extremely bearish, we are at 42k and it feels more bearish than the 42k last week. Up or Down? I have my plan i don’t really care. We have all the uncertainty and the usual FUD where everybody will be taxed to death and every country banning, but also some very bullish news. Russia flirting with Bitcoin, Institutions adopting, Whales hoarding. Keep the faith!
These uncertain times also create the best opportunities. Chaos is a ladder. Stay safe!
