What do you want to own?
Been working hard almost 24/7, slept only 3–5 nights at home last few months. Kinda fun experiment can still do the grind! (I haven’t lost all hope)
Inflation is getting rampant and it is affecting now everybody everywhere.
Currencies have been in war with each other from financial crisis 2008 and now it is escalating to massive shit show, who can debase the fastest? Dollar remains the king no matter what.
It bogles my mind that there is zero financial responsibility nowhere to be seen. Who is even financially responsible these days? It literally rewards you now negatively, go consume more and go live beyond your means.
Italy spreads widening? Oh yeah let’s save them. Why bother fixing any problems.
Manage your company badly — Get zero interest rate debt and subsidies…
It’s also extremely funny how inflation is perceived. I was rambling about inflation since covid (in assets) and nobody in my circle gave zero flying fuck. House prizes only going up — Hey what a great investment! It just doubled like that!
Gas price going 2x? Oh boy the whining… “Can’t afford to do anything now” Your trip to cabin just costs now 7€ more if we assume your car consumes 7L/100km and the trip is 100km. Gas price now in Finland around 2,5€/L… End of the world.
What to do? Let’s cry and try to get gas price down by cutting taxes etc. In one of my recent post i said we should give some break to hard working people and support local demand. Every economist and most of the politicians here are screaming that NO NO WE HAVE TO SUFFER AND RESPECT MARKET ECONOMY. I mean these fucktards have created one of the fewest places on earth where there is nearly zero market forces in play. Riddled with incentive traps and awful policies. We have to help Italy is the message on the other hand, what market economy is this? I am very saddened to see the state of Finnish economic influencers. I think they are also clueless what is happening or extremely stupid and lazy. I don’t even bother to mention politicians…
Almost every other country in Europe is giving subsidies to consumers, so why not here? USA too… Race to debasement, what do you want to own? GAS? Will the gas price go lower if the demand stays the same via subsidies? Energy prices are skyrocketing… But are the energy stocks “safe heaven”? Eh…
Warren Buffett must really love oil. Berkshire boosts Occidental Petroleum stake
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is betting that the oil boom isn't going to end any time soon.
Warren Buffet wants some oil.
Big question is will inflation slow down or will it persist?
Want to buy some stocks?
If i had to buy some stocks those would be energy. I am still expecting more downside. Now suddenly everybody screams recession and “crash” so…
I don’t feel we will have some risk on season starting any time soon, but for long term, there are some very interesting tech stocks that are hammered pretty hard. Especially software ones could be good pick even though recession fears looming. Good time to learn more and have some fun and do own valuation of some companies.
→ Companies layoff → Need more software.
→ Not affected so much by inflation.
- Companies simply invest in business if they have cash flows… In recession cash flow down and not fun to invest more cash to business.
Are some nice narratives forming? Data? AI? etc?
Palantir is pretty interesting one. Still it is ultra risk company, not profitable, but hey at least low debt and some revenue (surprisingly many have zero revenue and tons of debt). There is no urge to FOMO in to anything now.
I will wait for q2 results and trying to find more good business.
These are extremely “fun” times. We have full panic mode on.
The whole industry needs this, we need to flush out the leverage and let the strongest survive. 99% of these are garbage. I don’t have any problems playing and having fun with memes and some NFT’s.
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
— Warren Buffet
→ More regulation coming (good for long term, if sensible though could end up in a shitshow, just look at politicians…)
→ Winners keep winning (FTX & Binance for eg)
Why we have crypto winters?
I don’t expect we get some fast comeback anytime soon, maybe next halving? No FOMO anymore. People generally invest only what they are willing to loose in crypto. Everybody should, these are ultra risky assets if you followed cryptos for awhile you know…
→ Small allocations 1–5% Of portfolio/savings.
→ Brutal volatility
“Lets forget it for few years”
After the Luna crash i wash wondering was this it? Everybody just posting pink wojaks etc “BEAR MARKET”. Okay bodybags piling up now. Now i could say we are in a bear market, people puking up when they hear about crypto. Usually buying is good when capitulation is happening. I have been buying btc now from 27,5k — 24k — 20k — 18k. Not yet buying any alt coins ETH below 800 and i’m in. I Would not be surprised if we would go lower, but bitcoin at 20k is excellent buy imo for long term (still expecting to go lower on near future).
Some ALT’s have held extremely nice against BTC for eg SOLANA up 35% 1y (heh from 15–30 run up to 240… Now back to 30). Many of my calls in hindsight here were extremely bad. I even recommended Celcius, even though i knew the red flags, luckily i had only small allocation there and i withdrew my btc asap i saw some shakiness. I just liked the idea of Celcius and in the “good” what Alex was doing, all the red flags was there, but i fell in love with the story “Fuck the greedy banks we share our profits etc” yeah that was big bullshit... Again never invest in anything that has even one red flag, it is shit business then. Hope is a shit strategy, i learned it again here. I’m not editing my old posts or deleting them. Some have tattoos of Luna and i have my extremely cringy shills. Goal is to get better and learn new everyday.
In this macro environment Bitcoin should be the king and our little crypto community should scream that WE TOLD YOU… The ultimate safe heaven. After covid we had the most pristine asset narrative. Inflation peaking and Bitcoin price going only down however… Bitcoin is still working, nothing has changed. Bitcoin is only 13y old, remember that. I still believe Bitcoin is excellent asset (for 1–5% allocation). When you are getting margin calls you need $$$ Not BITCOIN, HOUSE or GOLD OR STOCKS OR OIL you need dollars.
Bitcoin will win in the long run if this madness continues and everybody should have even tiny piece of it, just to keep everything else honest.
What i am doing?
I am currently working extremely hard on my business, accumulating as much cash i can. Am i investing it to somewhere? Invest in my business? No just gimme those dollars, the time will come to invest. I am buying BTC with some profits i took from alt coins, but thats it.
Time to learn from mistakes (massive ones). Time to get humble. Time to work hard & study more.
I will try to study some recession proof “diploma” that can be done everywhere around the world for eg electrician (solar panels, ev chargers etc installing or any electrician job is in high demand pretty much in the future. My generation has trouble even changing lamps…).
I like to do business which are super simple, only thing you need to do is to work harder than peers and be little bit better. Reply to emails fast, be nice to customers, do work on time and clean after yourself, even by just doing these things you are ahead. Just read my stuff… I am not the smartest, i cannot compete with my peers i had in university in the corporation ladder. I clean, i wash stuff, i deliver stuff and maybe soon installing lamps etc.
ZERO DEBT → NO STRESS → GO LONG (zero leverage)
Sources and reads.
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