The market’s toughest test: Time
Time’s up, speculators: The brutal truth of time Capitulation.
This story was published on 26.9.2023
What is being tested the most at the moment in the market? Patience.
Enter the concept of “time capitulation”.
“Time capitulation” refers to the phenomenon where investors, especially those driven by short-term gains, lose patience and exit the market. This can also be seen in Bitcoin; follow him @_Checkmatey_
In my social circle, the discussion of stocks, investing, and saving money is becoming rare. During the virus, everybody was talking about stocks and investing. Fun times indeed. Soon, I’ll have enough saved to adopt a FIRE lifestyle… Can you notice the same in your social circle?
My social media feed is becoming less and less about “what to buy” and “gainz porn”. The recent IPOs are not that successful, for eg ARM and Instacart. The pure speculation and madness have slowed down considerably from the peak.
The people still on the market laugh about how NFT market is -95%. Yeah, they are bullshit, but still valuable lessons to be learned here. In these cryptos, everything happens so fast, and cycles are 10x faster, I would not consider that as “investing”, but if you want to learn something about trading, this is a highway to learn about human psychology. These are also the shitholes where the new narratives for future runs are born, and it’s not like this WEB3 nonsense will go away. It will come back even stronger, maybe some games? I don’t know, and I don’t care. It is still an awesome avenue to try new things even though 99% is pure scam, but still, it is not entirely dead. See? Similarly, the “use cases” were infinite at the peak, but what are the “use cases” now? Just scam?
These cryptos and NFTs are the peak FIAT world, full of scams and clown world ideas, but I don’t know somehow fascinating how the hardest money in the world and the most decentralized one (BITCOIN), have evolved into this kind of casino around it. Don’t confuse Bitcoin with this nonsense. I don’t have such vigorous hate against these “projects” as some do. I think it just shows how successful and how far Bitcoin has come:
- Bitcoin is a groundbreaking innovation. See the early times of the internet, which attracted all kinds of weird shit and outright scams.
- Speculation brings more speculation and speculators! It’s happening everywhere. See the dot-com era and ongoing AI mania. Humans being humans, the allure of quick profits is just so strong. FOMO is real. Many celebrities and seasoned investors also got scammed in the last cycle…
- It is something new and lacks any regulation, etc. Therefore, it is easy to scam and be just vaporware. Same as the early days of the dot-com bubble.
The speculative nature of humans will not simply vanish away, from trading tulips to monkey jpegs. I don’t know the “next big thing,” but the pure speculation won’t disappear.
The speculators time capitulate the first. They wanted the button to get rich fast, but it did not exist. We have tremendous amounts of “loss porn” on social media, and soon the speculators will throw the towel in the ring. Their only hope seems to be that interest rates will come lower and FED will start “printing” — How fucking stupid is this?
Bitcoin is also becoming incredibly “boring.”
Bitcoin also has this “Time capitulation” going. The ETF dreams are slowly vanishing, and my feed only has the faithful Bitcoin-only people posting. I have not received any question after the January 2023 capitulation: “Should I sell here?” Or after the bank panic in March 2023… Nobody cares anymore.
I don’t know what will happen to the price in the short term if I had to choose, probably lower. “Crashes” happen when interest is low (nobody buying). The same goes for any assets. I still buy a little bit every month and don’t care where the price is in the next 3 months. Long-term potential is enormous. We are at 2–3% of gold’s market cap, which is ridiculously cheap. In time, the strongest and best assets will win.
The class of 2021 is slowly giving up, and the majority will give up. I am still surprised the mania lasted this far, I was also sure that retail would give up faster. Some will continue the habit of investing, and they will win in the long run.
Consumers are also being bullied extremely hard by deteriorating purchasing power and rising interest rates. This is a new situation for many. Consumers have been extremely resilient and keep consuming, but it has to end soon. The math does not make any sense at the moment. Time will take care of it… The same thing will happen to our governments. How long do the deficits continue? Time will take care of it.
Time is an asset, too, and it is the greatest advantage we retailers have. The stock market historically trends upward. Patience and long-term vision are all we need. We don’t need to report our results to anybody. Let’s sit on our hands and buy more when nobody is on the market.
Who wins if you live beyond your means and have to sell your assets in recession?
Diversifying and investing consistently will win the day in the long run.
It’s not about timing the market, but time in the market.
Time is our greatest ally. Now is a great time to learn more and build that emergency fund to survive the recession. No matter what happens, stay on the market!
Sources:
Originally published at https://kiiski.substack.com.
