The Incredible Story Of What Happens Next
I have my plan. My focus is solely on keeping the plan no matter what. Should you do the same? No. I’m just writing my current thoughts to challenge those ideas and maybe get some discussion and ideas.
My plan:
- Keep buying good assets
- Learn everyday
- Challenge your thesis
- Work hard
The sentiment seems extremely bad at the moment. But I am getting some hopeful thoughts thou. The clown world and things like it won’t simply survive these interest rates and inflation. We are going back to “value” slowly but surely.
The next value plays are done right here. Throwing some ideas. Becoming a macro specialist and sitting here and guessing what FED will do next does not help me in the long term. Finding and holding valuable things on the other hand…
Google, for example, is trading at 96 now. Can it go lower? Sure, how low? 60? Do I care if I buy 90 or 60 from 5 years now when I’m reading the annual report? I wish I had bought more of that 2 digits Google back in the day. Google could become our Coca-Cola stock; it has such dominance it is now a verb. But it has some risks too. Regulatory is the biggest, followed by competition from tik-tok, etc. I am massive privacy and wep3 advocate, but I still have to use Google… It is just superior service. It has strong profitability, a strong balance sheet, and a great MOAT. Will definitely do deep dive soon.
Bitcoin
Trading at 19k wiped out gains from the top of 2017. Can it go lower? Sure it can go to 12k? Do I give a flying fuck? Did I buy at 12k or 19k from 5y from now? I hope not. Bitcoin did not start from 65k.
Adoption will only grow, and bitcoin will get only better over time. Strongest will survive, or do you wanna own WOKE/clown assets? Canadians seem to say fuck this shit, I bet Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still a tiny and young asset and smaller than the biggest companies. Why is it not adopted by banks or big institutions yet? It is mainly still adopted by young people, do banks, etc, give zero fucks yet about 18–34y olds? Every generation is more intelligent than the previous one. You can take that to the bank.
The beautiful business.
UPM-Kymmenen for example.
Up 6% from YTD. You can still find single stocks doing just fine, no matter how shit everything looks. Will we go to some Japanification, and next 20 years, every index is flat? Some stocks will do exceptionally well, and some not so well.
Pulp & Paper company standing on solid legs owning outstanding assets, and transforming into a future juggernaut in the bioeconomy industry?
Nuclear Energy is on the rise too. Trying to figure out who will be the next key players. Still a highly hated industry, but recently Japan, France, and Sweden eg, announced they will build more. Sanity wins in the long run.
I don’t want to FOMO into the Uranium; I want to find the deep value plays here. A lot of reading and learning ahead. Any business about storing the waste? Is there any value? Who builds these? Innovations in the “next-gen” nuclear energy? Who even makes this stuff? Do we even have the engineers to do this? I don’t know anything yet about this industry.
Lithium is also crucial for the future. BASF invests heavily to become a key player in the European lithium infrastructure. A similar story to UPM. Finding those currently hated by the ESG etc. It might transform into the future key player in future industries. Again lot of studying ahead; I don’t know much about BASF and its earnings & risks.
Renewable energy business? Venturing a little bit to learn more about Norwegian companies.
It would definitely be fun to do some valuation exercises on these. It is fun and forces you to dive deep into how they generate earnings.
It is a constant puzzle game. I like it a lot. Figuring out where is the “value” it is a fun game. It can crush and humble you anytime. I have thought many times I got this “I know it all” and got always humbled. Learning begins when you think you know it all. You have to play this game constantly if you start picking the winners. Build conviction and know the risks. I have papered the ten baggers and kept betting on losers. I understand this game is not for everybody, it is extremely hard, and you have to be a little bit crazy and obsessed with this. Will I become some nuclear expert? Highly likely not, but it can still be fun to learn new stuff and I can find that new rabbit hole and find that next fantastic company I like.
What next?
- Are there huge systemic risks now? Yes
- Everything is trading like a shitcoin.
- Uk Gilts? What next? US TREASURIES?
→ Liquidity just going poof.
Cash remains king no doubt, but still, I am investing a little bit of my income in assets I think have value in the long term. I am extremely busy at the moment working and generating that cash.
Nobody knows what will happen next. Everybody screaming for the capitulation moment but how many actually have the balls actually dive in there? It is 10x harder than my simple plan. Sure I try to get some from the absolute bottom. We are going to round 14 will you give up now? For what?
Sources:
