Quick outlook on markets?
I am not very positive on near term future for stocks and crypto, but everybody is extremely bearish at the moment. Look its a bear market! Sure it is very choppy and not fun, i think everybody called that 2022 cant be nowhere close to the madness of 2020–2021, there is always hangover.
Is it bear market?
- Nobody wants to buy any stocks and definitely nothing related to crypto. Retail already left crypto pretty much, but crypto is still holding extremely good. Luna crash wiped shit ton of money and it was just shrugged off like nothing? Thats the magic of crypto. Imagine same happening in stock market?
- Everybody still talking about stocks and crypto at least in my bubble. I was pretty young in 2008 but had started my “investing” hobby in early 2000, there was literally nobody talking about stocks after 2008, NOBODY. Everybody just posting pink wojaks now…
- Where is all the bankruptcies? Yeah Luna got wiped, but what about publicly listed companies? 95% of crypto should go to toilet and plenty of equity too. Maybe the playoffs are starting in crypto and business also soon, we will see, but right now we are still in regular season. Some layoffs are starting now.
Will we go to full bear mode? Changes are extremely high. In crypto we are currently pretty much the same place as in summer 2021, macro environment just 10x shittier for near term future… Am i buying now anything? Not much. I will buy more bitcoin also Coinbase stock looks pretty tempting. They have truck load of cash & assets, P/E around 5, insiders buying back the stock. I already said in January that if you want to dip your toes to crypto might be good to buy some COIN (was only down -50% heh lol), price now 2–3x lower, now you would get 2–3x more of the same stock if you bought the first dip.
Don’t give up your investing/savings plan, if you want to allocate little bit to crypto, COIN would be pretty good play. Now you get the same assets 2–3 times cheaper than in the top, in autumn and winter 5x cheaper? Have your plan! It is not easy it is extremely hard. Definitely keep your dancing shoes on if you pick single stocks and crypto. -70%? Can’t go any lower? They can.
Service business outlook.
Extremely hot, demand sky rocketing everybody organising parties. Due to covid there is +2y wedding parties etc. Do i believe the demand will hold to autumn and winter? All the analyst here say demand will only slow down little bit. I would be extremely surprised if this demand would hold.
- Costs are going only up.
- There is not enough workers for service industry.
But just pay more they will come! Why companies aren’t hiring more and raising salaries aggressively and competing on workforce? They also believe demand will slowdown… (Service industry)
- Consumers don’t have any extra money left in autumn… Real wages going only down.
- Food prices + Energy prices +Housing costs + Rising interest rates
And we have like the only government in Europe who gives zero support for honest working class? Literally zero support, just message that keep working hard and pay more taxes. People who are on benefits will get compensation for energy prices… Raise on the indexes… We have to take care of those who are in need the most absolutely, but we need to also support the people who are paying everything here. The trust is deteriorating fast why work here? Makes zero sense soon. Everybody knows Europe cant go through these times without everybody taking some pain. Still they should give at least some carrot for the hard working tax payers, with these policies we will kill the domestic demand totally.
→ Already the rising cost is showing up, orders are super weird, consumers try to do as much as they can themselves to save money. Feels like they don’t have zero clue what is happening. In autumn and winter they have zero money to do literally anything… Look data from US consumers? They are tapping heavily to credit to finance everything “Lets party and have no worries?”
Something good though for service industry?
Corporations organised very little everything during covid and also when the war started. Everybody extremely cautious about ESG… “We look so bad if we throw some big party to celebrate our company 50y old birthday or what ever”. They have massive budgets left to throw all sort of events and parties. Still if we glide to full recession mode and they have to layoff people they don’t again organise anything “we will look so bad”, also even if some industries are doing just fine they wont also do anything. Sure some small and “intimate” events are happening all the time but compared to the time before covid nowhere close. Big companies hiring frontline artist and booking big arenas… Competitors of course doing the same but 2x bigger just to show off.
Am i investing to my company? No! Still i don’t have any reason for that… Plan for the worst is my way for now. Not hiring more, i will just hustle through nights and weekends so will be quiet here for summer. I see quite many small businesses having lights on during nights and weekends the entrepreneurs hustling there for what? Why would they do it? Why i do it? I have same mentality for investing now too.
Sources good reads what ever
