Predictions 2022 — Pick 3: F€$k this Sh#t — Bet #Bitcoin
Year 2021 was massive for bitcoin from 29k to 47k and now at 42k 7.1.2022, what happened?
- Massive newcomers, Tesla bought Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin hit 1 trillion market cap.
- Coinbase IPO.
- Taproot upgrade.
- El Salvador makes Bitcoin legal tender.
- We got many ETF! (Futures in USA).
- Many big investors and influencers changed their mind about Bitcoin, Ray Dalio, Aswath Damodaran and many more.
Those came to mind first… A lot happened, it was definitely a wild ride. Did any prediction's get last year right? We got massive euphoria where it was sure bet to reach 100k, but the year ended at 47k. The year 2021 was insane.
This video first 60sec is beautiful. Insanity. How to navigate in this insanity? https://kiiski.medium.com/strategy-going-forward-hard-work-and-consistency-e5b1526d7c7c
I wrote my strategy going forward, its pretty simple more cash (usd) and Bitcoin. I was waiting this “bearish” sentiment. Have to admit i didnt expect this happen so fast. We already knew that FED will tighten? Market is now extremely confusing, nothing really makes sense, those times are the times you make it or break it. Im not scared, i have my plan.
I was on holiday 7.1.2022 and i cant deny i felt the pain when i saw the 40k price in the morning. Beginning of last year it was so bullish and only way was only up (same price). I myself even wrote small pamphlet to my friends to welcome them to digital assets (pretty good top signal). Now that 40k feels like super bearish in this lovely crypto community. It certainly doesnt look pretty. I bought at 48,45 and 42 now, next stop 30k? I dont know where the BEAST is going. I will buy more. Why?
Bitcoin is one of the few things that makes any sense in this world. It makes me literally mad to read covid scare porn from the media, the economist rambling about shit (wish it was real science). Many many more will ask many many more questions in the future. Does it make any sense? Where will the road lead? BITCOIN.
When i first bought Bitcoin, it was only very small allocation “its interesting and it might become something”. This probability is rising everyday in my opinion when i observe this clown timeline and this is why i buy. I simply dont care about the price anymore. I tried to predict the price few times but i always got it wrong, its extremely hard (check how the prediction game is going for the “pros”?). I tried paper trading Bitcoin for 3 separate months and all of them resulted in 6 fig loss, yeah there where the times i was up 7 fig, but i ended every month at a loss. Thank god on my early years i played tons of poker and sports betting. I was good at the grinding and making it profitable by working hard and long hours, but in the end i blew my bankroll every time.
I challenge my thesis everyday, am i crazy? Am i just looking for a shortcut in life to skip the hard work and retire early by buying magic internet money? Am i wrong? Can it become something? Is it something? I have poured thousands and thousands of hours to this to challenge my thesis. I dont even care if the thing just blows off. I have learned so much in this rabbit hole. Lot more i ever learned in university, lot more than running my business and in work life. Myself-confidence has gone up massively, i can do the grinding no matter what.
Game will get harder from now on i believe. Its not so easy to get astronomical gains in year 2022. Everything is possible in this space though. Bitcoin will remain my savings account through 2022, you can take that to the bank.
Okay okay where is the fun part and predicting the price and what will happen? Okay here is what happens in 2022: BIG HOPIUM warning!
- We will get the spot ETF in USA and all time high above 100k before August 2022 (similar what happened after Coinbase ipo, “small bear market” after that).
- Few more big newcomers (similar to Tesla).
- 1–3 Countries making Bitcoin legal tender.
- Bitcoin will get more and more adoption (????? what makes sense ????).
One thing is certain the insanity will continue. We will get the euphoria but some FUD too. My FUD predictions.
- Europe will present some way out of the line restrictions or bans for digital assets (Europe leaders are clueless and totally blinded by this covid mass hysteria, insanity will spillover). Restriction are needed and sometimes bullish, but when Europe does something…
- Fear of war on the rise… Tensions will escalate…
Bonus predictions:
- Covid will end by summer 2022. There is plenty of work to be done to restore the faith in pure statistics, science, media and our leaders. Yes big mistakes were made if we look in hindsight what was done and will be done in near future to “treat” covid. This dirty laundry has to be washed. People dont ask questions right now, but they will when we start to pay the debt we took to “treat covid” taxes will rise, more public services will be cut, or do we just take more debt? Yes the small entrepreneur's and workers in service industries were the biggest losers so far, but in the end everybody will lose? Who will pay? It was “ok” as long as the majority didnt lose their money. Lets ask this again after few years…
- Dollar will get lot more stronger. Its the king of fiat and it will be in 2022 too. Yeah its not the most pristine asset in the world but compare it to competition? What competition is here? You want dollars, its that simple.
- Europe will do extremely bad… The growth in Germany is slowing down already (it is literally single handedly keeping Europe afloat, other economies are utterly shit and almost useless, majority is just eating the cake). Very bearish on Europe, compare for fun all the “covid stocks”, new innovation, disruptive companies? Didn't see many European companies here… Insanity in Europe will hamper growth and innovation. ECB is also full of shit, they simply cant raise interest rates, otherwise Europe will collapse (countries cannot pay debt).
- Monetary policies will be tighter in 2022, have to do it for the show to battle inflation. Covid will end which will also tighten (no more free money to zombie companies, government workers etc). We are definitely not getting similar rates like in 70s and 80s, we are talking here very small rise. Of course riskier assets will take some hit, but will few small hikes be end of the world?
- Europe energy crisis? Again the policy making here…
- China growth will slow down.
Thats it for now. Will ramble more definitely! Hope you have wonderful year!
I will focus more on useful stuff in the future and leave the ramblings… No point to waste energy in nonsense. Logic and sense will win in the long run, it just takes sometimes lot longer.
Take care ❤
Sources and recommendations for reading: (A lot is just in my old ramplings)
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/maelstrom-ee6021e9d0c2
https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/01/07/taper-discretion-means-not-loving-payrolls-anymore/
